It is not the pro azadi movement in Kashmir which has a potential to create news. But it is the resistance applied to the movement by the state which is creating news. Let us examine this hypothesis form the time Shopian incident rocked the nation.
In one of the most unfortunate incidents two women were raped and murdered. The pro azadi elements took no time to en-cash it. They swiftly organized a protest accusing Indian security forces for the rape and murder. Reacting to the situation CM Omar Abdulla initially opposed the allegation and as the crescendo of disagreement build up, he suspended the DC. He applied central forces in haste to stem the tide which was inflationary. This resulted in deaths of protestors.
The entire episode would have not created much uproar if asymmetric force would not have been applied. The situation should have been left to Jammu and Kashmir Police. It was due to this application of force the separatists’ were able to rally crowds on grounds of mutilation of human rights in the state.
In the first instance we need to clarify that is there a requirement of application of asymmetric force in Kashmir. My answer to this would be a blunt NO. Kashmir lies at the end of a supply line. It is a state which has 90% of religiously homogenous population. Article 370 has ensured that there is no major outside investment. There are no mineral resources that feed the national economy. The tourism industry including the Amarnath Yatra sustains economy of the state. So the disobedience is going to hurt whom? The answer is Kashmirs. All political parties, pro Azadi, pro Pak or pro Indian know that a prolonged economic shutdown will affect the people who form their vote bank. So the possibility of mass violence and damage to property can be ruled out.
Jammu Kashmir Police is by far the best force to tackle the unrest. They being locals are feared. And fear brings in respect. The CRPF being a central force with no clear command structure is the piggybacked by everyone for their moment of glory. The most hardworking and sincere of the forces gets handicapped with the clause of in aid to civil police where the decision to baton charge or opening fire lies with a Kashmir Cadre officer. Believe me it is the ultimate leadership skill to convince your men to get hit successively without retaliating. I salute the Junior CRPF officers on ground for accomplishing these almost impossible feet.
A question here arises why the State police which is trained and capable is not used to its fullest extent? The answer is simple. Application of state police does not create any Sansani-ationalism. Application of CRPF does. CRPF is deployed stating that the situation out of control with a mandate to restore the normalcy. The state police are made to recede to background. This is when the casualties occur. The design is flawless. If you use minors for stone pelting, only minors will die. This can be further exploited.
Now let us see the alleged issue of Human Rights Violation. The crowd gathers after Friday prayers. (Mausima, Down Town in Srinagar, Hathikhan and Bag e Islam in Sopore, Old Town in Baramulla ONLY). It starts protesting and slowly the crowd turns into a mob and stone pelting begins. Several passersby are hit and injured. Police persons get injured. Last year one such stone hit the eye of a CRPF jawan. The private hospitals in Sopore refused first Aid! Almost three civilians and one Child have died due to these senseless protests. Will Mehbooba Mufti, SAS Gilani and their surrogate Parents in Pakistan Tell me Who is violating Human Rights?( Amnesty International is welcome to answer this.)
http://www.zeenews.com/news623118.html
What were the conditions then, which impelled CM Omar Abdulla, to deploy the Army to the streets of Srinagar? The Answer is Simple. It should be seen in this context. In March he made a statement in That Kashmiri Blood is not cheap. He then stated in Srinagar that Human Rights Accesses will not be tolerated. He then stated that that the anger of stone peters is not directed at the state government. I agree to his self admission of political naivety here. No one noticed him.
http://www.greaterkashmir.com/news/2010/Apr/21/kashmiri-blood-not-cheap-omar-83.asp
The Answer is hidden in his statements. Raise the level of force application. This will certainly paint a picture of a state of desperateness to the Global audience. If God forbids any major casualties occur, the Indian Army will be at the receiving end. (Bommai incident last year is a precursor to this).Within no time the protest will gather an unprecedented momentum. The AFSPA will be challenged on the streets of Kashmir and army will be forced on the back foot. This will give an edge to the terrorist cadres which are presently in hibernation. And we will see resurgence in the terrorism.
The challenge now lies with the Indian Army to come out unscathed from this acid test.
Monday, July 12, 2010
Saturday, July 10, 2010
Contours of Present Conflict
The violence in Kashmir is a result of a dubious design. APHC stands at the apex of this paroxysmal display of lawlessness. And all political parties equally contribute to the chaos.
The unprecedented public support to Amarnath land row agitation initially gave APHC the glory it always dreamt off. Later as the public suffered the sheen started to wean away. The refusal of Pakistan to accept the horticultural produce of Kashmir, and simultaneous land blockade gave a strong dose of realities to the separatists. By the end of August 2008 the historic movement faded into oblivion. The lessons from this moment were simple and straight. The movement was successful in coercing all centers of power of Indian Union. The unsung hero of Gurkha Rifles who opened fire at the protesters who were trying to enter the Paribal complex of Rashtriya Rifles did send a message across Dont mess with the army.
The lessons were used to effect in 2009 where in the Sophiyan incident was exploited to set the furor. As the movement began to die the separatist were on lookout of new issues. One such attempt was made at Trehgam on 8 July 10, 2009 when the accidental death of Amina Massodi was exploited as a case or Rape and Murder by Armed forces.
http://theskandnayal.blogspot.com/2010/04/ballad-of-ashique-hussain-pir.html
The second incident happened at Baramulla. A woman whose brother had eloped with a neighbor was called at police station. The SO an old God fearing man spoke to her in a rash tone to produce the couple. She went out weeping. Within an hour the protestors took to street accusing that she was molested. The resulting perpetrated over the next few days resulted in death of four youths.
http://theskandnayal.blogspot.com/2010/03/jihad-ii.html
The stone pelting duels are intriguing to watch. Children of 8 to 15 years are paid upto 500 rupees a day for stone pelting. The younger the child the better it is. The police (Jammu and Kashmir Police) columns retreat. The stone palters move ahead. The police moves back further. Then, the police charges ahead, firing tear gas shells at the protestors. This goes on till it gets dark.
If the movement does not die its own death in few days, CRPF is inducted with a mandate to end the protest. These troops do not retreat. They stand their ground. If need be they fire rubber bullets and tear gas shells. The crowed buoyed by their victory pick up the fired tear gas shells and throw them back at CRPF. Then the shells are fired straight in a flat trajectory. The impact sometime proves to be fatal.
Then the fresh deaths propel the movement.
After Friday prayers, Down Town, Mausumia Srinagar, Hathikhan Mohalla, Chinkipora Sopore & Old Town Baramulla are rocked by violent protests. Rest of the valley remains entirely peaceful. If any death occurs the protests are prolonged.
Now we shall understand the timing and the design. The preparation for apple crops is completed by last week of May every year. The crop is watered, tendered and sale dead are completed by this time. The interim period upto August end the trades are free with an assured income. This period coincides with the Amarnath Yatra. The protest rock let me be specific Part of Srinagar, Sopore, Baramulla, where the writ of Jamat and APHC prevails. Remainder of the valley sulks by the suffering this will bring. The moment the apple crop is ready for dispatch, the protests come to an end.
The reality is, Militancy in Kashmir is dead. Local terrorists are not seen not heard .The infiltrated foreign terrorists are in hibernation to complete their two year tenure in valley. There are no Terrorists in sight to be killed. There is no actual violence. People have lost interest in this endless quagmire. They want betterment and peace. This threatens all those who yield power in the valley.
This year witnessed a new trend. The justification of their existence by the players of this game. It started with Chinkipora, Sopore. After the security forces (SF) operation was over, Gilani visited and distributed Rs 5 lakh to the effected family. Next day Yasin Malik visited and distributed Rs 9 lakh. The place was visited in quick succession by Mehbooba Mufti and other booty hunters. Similar trend was visible after incidents in Magum, Rafiabad. It is clearly written on the wall the whole issue is political. Gen Singh is of the same opinion.
Two incidents which has shaped the contours of the valley today are firstly are the response to Sophiyan incident by Omar Abdulla and apprehension and trial of BSF Commandant Randhir Kumar Virdi. They have sent a message across that the state is open to political coercion.
This series of protest will fizzle out by first week of September. This year infiltration has been at ebb. The resident terrorists are on back foot. The public is antagonized by the series of bandhs. The time is ripe for some strong political maneuver to bring this suffering to a logical conclusion.
The unprecedented public support to Amarnath land row agitation initially gave APHC the glory it always dreamt off. Later as the public suffered the sheen started to wean away. The refusal of Pakistan to accept the horticultural produce of Kashmir, and simultaneous land blockade gave a strong dose of realities to the separatists. By the end of August 2008 the historic movement faded into oblivion. The lessons from this moment were simple and straight. The movement was successful in coercing all centers of power of Indian Union. The unsung hero of Gurkha Rifles who opened fire at the protesters who were trying to enter the Paribal complex of Rashtriya Rifles did send a message across Dont mess with the army.
The lessons were used to effect in 2009 where in the Sophiyan incident was exploited to set the furor. As the movement began to die the separatist were on lookout of new issues. One such attempt was made at Trehgam on 8 July 10, 2009 when the accidental death of Amina Massodi was exploited as a case or Rape and Murder by Armed forces.
http://theskandnayal.blogspot.com/2010/04/ballad-of-ashique-hussain-pir.html
The second incident happened at Baramulla. A woman whose brother had eloped with a neighbor was called at police station. The SO an old God fearing man spoke to her in a rash tone to produce the couple. She went out weeping. Within an hour the protestors took to street accusing that she was molested. The resulting perpetrated over the next few days resulted in death of four youths.
http://theskandnayal.blogspot.com/2010/03/jihad-ii.html
The stone pelting duels are intriguing to watch. Children of 8 to 15 years are paid upto 500 rupees a day for stone pelting. The younger the child the better it is. The police (Jammu and Kashmir Police) columns retreat. The stone palters move ahead. The police moves back further. Then, the police charges ahead, firing tear gas shells at the protestors. This goes on till it gets dark.
If the movement does not die its own death in few days, CRPF is inducted with a mandate to end the protest. These troops do not retreat. They stand their ground. If need be they fire rubber bullets and tear gas shells. The crowed buoyed by their victory pick up the fired tear gas shells and throw them back at CRPF. Then the shells are fired straight in a flat trajectory. The impact sometime proves to be fatal.
Then the fresh deaths propel the movement.
After Friday prayers, Down Town, Mausumia Srinagar, Hathikhan Mohalla, Chinkipora Sopore & Old Town Baramulla are rocked by violent protests. Rest of the valley remains entirely peaceful. If any death occurs the protests are prolonged.
Now we shall understand the timing and the design. The preparation for apple crops is completed by last week of May every year. The crop is watered, tendered and sale dead are completed by this time. The interim period upto August end the trades are free with an assured income. This period coincides with the Amarnath Yatra. The protest rock let me be specific Part of Srinagar, Sopore, Baramulla, where the writ of Jamat and APHC prevails. Remainder of the valley sulks by the suffering this will bring. The moment the apple crop is ready for dispatch, the protests come to an end.
The reality is, Militancy in Kashmir is dead. Local terrorists are not seen not heard .The infiltrated foreign terrorists are in hibernation to complete their two year tenure in valley. There are no Terrorists in sight to be killed. There is no actual violence. People have lost interest in this endless quagmire. They want betterment and peace. This threatens all those who yield power in the valley.
This year witnessed a new trend. The justification of their existence by the players of this game. It started with Chinkipora, Sopore. After the security forces (SF) operation was over, Gilani visited and distributed Rs 5 lakh to the effected family. Next day Yasin Malik visited and distributed Rs 9 lakh. The place was visited in quick succession by Mehbooba Mufti and other booty hunters. Similar trend was visible after incidents in Magum, Rafiabad. It is clearly written on the wall the whole issue is political. Gen Singh is of the same opinion.
Two incidents which has shaped the contours of the valley today are firstly are the response to Sophiyan incident by Omar Abdulla and apprehension and trial of BSF Commandant Randhir Kumar Virdi. They have sent a message across that the state is open to political coercion.
This series of protest will fizzle out by first week of September. This year infiltration has been at ebb. The resident terrorists are on back foot. The public is antagonized by the series of bandhs. The time is ripe for some strong political maneuver to bring this suffering to a logical conclusion.
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